TSMC Allegedly Not Rushing into Adoption of High-NA EUV Machinery

[T0@st]

DigiTimes Asia has reached out to insiders at fabrication toolmakers in an effort to delve deeper into claims made by industry analysts at the start of 2024—both SemiAnalysis and China Renaissance have proposed that TSMC is unlikely to adopt High-NA EUV production techniques within a five year period. The latest news article explores a non-upgrade approach for the next couple of years: "TSMC has not placed orders for high-numerical aperture (High-NA) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools and is unlikely to use the technology in 2 nm and 1.4 nm (A14) process manufacturing." Intel Foundry Services (IFS) will be one of the first semiconductor manufacturers to go online with ASML's latest and greatest machinery, although no firm timeframes have been confirmed. Team Blue's Taiwanese rival (and occasional business partner) is seemingly happy with its existing infrastructure, but industry watchdogs propose that cost considerations are key factors behind TSMC's cautious planning for the next decade.

The DigiTimes insider sources believe that TSMC will not budge until at least 2029, possibly coinciding with a 1 nm production node—analysts at China Renaissance reckon that High-NA EUV machines could be delivered in the future when facilities are readied for an "A10" codenamed process. TSMC published a very ambitious "transistor count" product timeline in early January (see below)—the first "1 nm" products are supposedly targeted for a 2030 rollout, but this schedule could change due to unforeseen circumstances. Intel is expected to "phase in" its fanciest ASML gear collection once the 18A process becomes old hat—Tom's Hardware thinks that 2026 - 2027 is a feasible timeframe.



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[bonehead123]

But...

But....

Ya gotta "keep up with the Jones's"

I'd wager that buried deep inside it's strategic plans, there are contingencies already laid out to keep a very close watch on the boys in Blue, as well as setting aside some major funds to purchase the advanced machines asap, in case Intel moves up their time lines even a little....

TSMC did NOT get where they are by a lack of planning or by being stupid and not paying attention to what is going on around them

 

[unknownk]

But...

But....

Ya gotta "keep up with the Jones's"

I'd wager that buried deep inside it's strategic plans, there are contingencies already laid out to keep a very close watch on the boys in Blue, as well as setting aside some major funds to purchase the advanced machines asap, in case Intel moves up their time lines even a little....

TSMC did NOT get where they are by a lack of planning or by being stupid and not paying attention to what is going on around them

Everybody in that field has a screwup here and there with specific nodes.

 

[Minus Infinity]

Makes sense by TSMC. Cost analysis of EUV by ASML has shown it will not even make sense until 1nm is shipping well after 2030. Multisampling DUV is far cheaper and produces better results. Good to see Intel rush out and buy 6 of these machines.

Semianalysis has the full report.

 

[Denver]

But...

But....

Ya gotta "keep up with the Jones's"

I'd wager that buried deep inside it's strategic plans, there are contingencies already laid out to keep a very close watch on the boys in Blue, as well as setting aside some major funds to purchase the advanced machines asap, in case Intel moves up their time lines even a little....

TSMC did NOT get where they are by a lack of planning or by being stupid and not paying attention to what is going on around them

Don't buy Intel's multiple excuses.

TSMC beats everyone, even though the competition has access to the same EUV photolithography machines. They do it better, faster and more efficiently.

 

[Darkholm]

And why should they rush? Everybody else in this business are fairly behind.

 

[kondamin]

And why should they rush? Everybody else in this business are fairly behind.

Both intel and Samsung made serious stumbles resulting in tsmc being the industry leader today.
there is nothing that makes them immune to the same